Mandel's Mailbag: Will Michigan get a slap on the wrist? Is Lincoln Riley OK? (2024)

Guys, the season is sooo close, you can taste it. Time to talk preseason predictions, the College Football Playoff race, the Heisman and so forth.

But first: Let’s discuss Connor Stalions, of course.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

So Michigan is going to get away with the biggest on-field cheating scandal in the history of college football with nothing more than a finger wag and slap on the wrist, right?

Scott N.

Is it really the biggest on-field cheating scandal in the history of college football? I’m not asking that rhetorically or sarcastically; I honestly don’t know. Surely, there must be a story from 80-100 years ago where a school got one of its players to walk on at another school for the sole purpose of stealing their playbook. Or a spy snuck into other teams’ practices disguised as the water boy. Any historians care to chime in?

As previously discussed, there is no mechanism for the NCAA to take away the Wolverines’ national championship after the fact. Based on ESPN’s report about a draft notice of allegations, it sounds like they have more than enough evidence to levy sanctions against the program, but what does that even look like in 2024? Vacated wins? No one cares. Issue a show-cause to Jim Harbaugh? He’s not coming to back to college, regardless. Fine the school? They can afford it. Take away scholarships? Just give some guys an NIL deal that’s worth the same as a scholarship.

The only penalty that would meaningfully hurt the program is a postseason ban, which the NCAA recently has been getting away from to avoid punishing athletes who had nothing to do with the infractions. We saw that with the Tennessee/Jeremy Pruitt recruiting scandal. The Committee on Infractions fined Tennessee $8 million and issued Pruitt a hefty show-cause, but there was no postseason ban. However, Arizona State last year voluntarily self-imposed a bowl ban in its own case involving COVID-era recruiting violations, likely because the Sun Devils had no shot at winning six games.

I have no doubt the NCAA is foaming at the mouth to hammer Michigan with something. Not because in-person scouting or low-level recruiting violations are crimes against humanity, but because Jim Harbaugh and others there have been so uncooperative and unrepentant about both investigations. And now they’ve even got Sherrone Moore deleting text messages and former assistant Chris Partridge pressuring a player to lie to investigators. The Michigan Block M might as well stand for Mislead.

The NCAA has spent the past several years getting its authority ripped apart by lawyers, politicians and judges. The Connor Stalions scandal is a rare layup for the organization where it has the goods, and it likely has public opinion (outside the state of Michigan) on its side. Which is why I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a postseason ban.

But my guess is, if you asked a Michigan fan a year ago whether they’d trade a national championship for a bowl ban two to three years down the road, they’d gladly take it.

Simple question: Is Lincoln Riley OK? Anyone who even hints at canceling the greatest rivalry in college sports is either being misquoted or is unwell and should be hospitalized.

Del D.

USC–Notre Dame is not remotely on my short list of greatest rivalries in college sports, but I know it’s a big deal for the two fan bases involved. Riley either doesn’t grasp that or doesn’t care. Whichever it is, it’s one of many head-scratching cases lately where it seems like Riley is not operating in the same world as his own fan base.

I say that because USC fans more than most take pride in not just the Notre Dame series but the Trojans’ nonconference schedules in general. They freaked out a few years ago when the school at one point scheduled UC Davis, which would have ended its status as one of three (at the time) programs to never play an FCS opponent. Then-AD Mike Bohn reversed that decision, and now USC is in fact the only program left with that distinction.

Yet it came out this offseason that Riley had tried to get out of the Trojans’ neutral-site opener this year against LSU. And then came the suggestion at Big Ten media days that the Notre Dame game could get chopped in the name of Playoff contention, a possibility his own AD Jen Cohen characterized much differently last week. Weird.

#USC AD Jen Cohen just spoke on ESPN710 and was asked about the importance of keeping the series with Notre Dame. Here's what she said. pic.twitter.com/1CSPm1Jx7W

— Antonio Morales (@AntonioCMorales) August 2, 2024

And then what of this?

At his introductory news conference in November 2021, Riley, then taking over a 4-8 team with a completely broken culture, was asked how soon he could return USC to prominence. “In this day and age, I think it can happen quickly,” he said confidently, later adding, “No time is soon enough.” Spoken like a coach who realized full well that L.A. is not a town brimming with patience.

Fast forward to last month in Indianapolis, though, and we get this: “It takes time. I’m not a magician. I can’t wave a magic wand, and everything just be perfect right away.”

Not exactly, “Fight On!”

I don’t think he needs to be hospitalized, but he needs to win some games, starting with LSU, and remind folks why he was such a ballyhooed hire to begin with. Because his message is no longer landing like it did in 2021.

Do you think the fact that the two preseason favorites for the national title, Georgia and Ohio State, drew the top three other teams in their respective conferences (and five of the six combined games on the road!) make it highly unlikely we end up with an undefeated national champion? Will undefeated champions become increasingly rare in the coming years?

Brian F., Mt. Pleasant, Mich.

Wow, I had not noticed that, but Brian is right. Based on Monday’s preseason coaches poll:

No. 1 Georgia faces No. 4 Texas, No. 5 Alabama and No. 6 Ole Miss on the road. Those are the SEC’s three next highest-ranked teams.

No. 2 Ohio State plays No. 3 Oregon and No. 9 Penn State on the road, and No. 8 Michigan at home, the Big Ten’s three next highest-ranked teams.

I feel confident saying we probably aren’t going to have three undefeated power-conference champs like last year. We might not even have one. But I’m not going to say zero, simply because these bloated super-conference schedules work the other way, too.

Case in point: Yes, No. 4 Texas has to face No. 1 Georgia at home, but it misses the next FIVE ranked SEC teams (No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 11 Missouri, No. 12 LSU or No. 15 Tennessee). The ‘Horns do have a nonconference road game at top-10 Michigan, but their next-highest ranked conference foe is No. 16 Oklahoma.

On the whole, I absolutely think undefeated national champs will become increasingly rare, for three reasons: 1) Math. Getting to 16-0 or 17-0 is going to be that much harder than 15-0. 2) Harder conference championship games. No more 12-0 team drawing a 9-3 team from the weaker division.

As for reason No. 3, this is a completely untested theory on my part, but here it goes. I believe the reduced consequences from losing a game will seep into the mindset of some coaches and players. Just human nature, it’s impossible to get “up” all the way for 13 straight regular-season games as it is, and now we’re reducing the urgency for most of them. I would not be surprised if we see a rise in top-five teams just not showing up one week and losing 35-7 to someone they’re expected to beat.

And I believe this because it happens all the darn time in the NFL. Like last year’s Super Bowl champion Chiefs, then on a six-game win streak, inexplicably losing 24-9 at Denver, which finished 8-9. Which of course did not affect their season in the slightest.

Six days after its humongous Ohio State game, Oregon plays at Purdue — picked to finish 18th out of 18 in the Big Ten — on a Friday night. Watch the Ducks lay an egg and lose, watch everyone freak out, and then, within a couple weeks, realize it was just one of those nights and move on.

Which will happen first with the 12-team Playoff:

1. A big-time program like Georgia or Ohio State goes on to build a dynasty (i.e. at least three national titles in five years)?
2. A consistent 10-win team like Penn State or Utah finally wins one?

Joe, Pittsburgh

The NFL is a league that does everything in its power to promote parity. The teams have to follow a salary cap. The worst team one year gets rewarded with the best draft pick the next. And your schedule is based in part on how you fared the season before (division champs play three other division champs, etc.). And its 14-team playoffs follow nearly the same format that college’s will now.

And still, the New England Patriots managed to twice win three “national championships” (Super Bowls) within five-year spans with Tom Brady, just as the Kansas City Chiefs have over the past five years with Patrick Mahomes.

So imagine what that might look like in a sport with almost no mechanisms for promoting competitive balance; where the same small group of “franchises” signs the most “first-round draft picks” (five-star recruits) every year; and the teams with the richest owners (boosters) can offer free agents more money than the others.

Yes, the 12-team Playoff will give a wider swath of schools the opportunity to compete for national championships. But realistically, the usual suspects are going to hog the trophies. For one thing, Georgia, Ohio State, etc., are likely going to be in the thing almost every year. Not discrediting Michigan in any way, but if there were a 12-teamer last year, Georgia may well be sitting on a three-peat right now. But also, how many programs have the top-to-bottom talent to win not one, not two, but at least three and possibly four straight games against the other top teams in the sport?

I’m not going to say definitively that a school is going to win three of the next five national titles, simply because there are more than three programs that can win one. But I’d put money on that scenario before I would Penn State or Utah.

KJ Jefferson Big 12 player of the year?

Jon, Dallas

I wouldn’t rule it out. The former Outback and Liberty Bowl MVP at Arkansas could well be poised for a huge final season with UCF. It basically comes down to this: Does Gus Malzahn still got it?

There was a time when the former Auburn offensive coordinator and head coach was considered an offensive savant and quarterback mastermind. He helped Cam Newton win a Heisman and become a No. 1 draft pick, got to a national title game with future NFL cornerback Nick Marshall throwing passes, turned Jarrett Stidham into a pro passer and played a part in the early makings of Bo Nix.

The luster began wearing off, though, when his latter-year Auburn offenses went stale, with Nix looking far from the guy he’d later become at Oregon by the time Malzahn was eventually fired in late 2020. Malzahn has been largely flying under the radar at UCF, where the Knights went 9-4 and 9-5 in his first two seasons, then 6-7 last season, their first in the Big 12. However, UCF quietly fielded the nation’s No. 7 offense last season, with a quarterback, John Rhys Plumlee, whom Lane Kiffin moved to receiver when he got to Ole Miss.

Jefferson, in the right offense, should be a much more potent passer. He was top three in the SEC in yards per attempt in both 2021 (9.1) and 2022 (8.8). Across those two seasons he completed 67.6 percent of his throws for 45 touchdowns and nine interceptions while also rushing for a combined 1,304 yards and 15 TDs. If you watched a lot of Razorbacks games during that period, you know broadcasters frequently compared the massive 6-foot-3, 247-pound QB to former Malzahn protégé Newton.

But things went south for Jefferson in 2023, after offensive coordinator Kendal Briles left for TCU and Sam Pittman brought in the short-lived Dan Enos (fired after eight games). Jefferson regressed in every area — hence the fresh start in Orlando. I’m eager to see how he performs in Malzahn’s scheme.

Stew — If you are the head coach of a preseason top-five team scheduled to play another very good out-of-conference team away from home, do you want that game to be Week 1 (Georgia vs. Clemson in 2021 and 2024), or would you prefer to wait until Week 2 (Texas-Alabama in 2023 or Texas-Michigan 2024) to get any kinks worked out? Seems awful risky to take a title-contending team on the road for your first game.

Mark L., Raleigh, N.C.

If you gave truth serum to every Power 4 coach they would all tell you they’d prefer to open with a home game against a directional school for that very reason. Colleges don’t have preseason games, and, especially in the portal era, many of your starters will be taking their first meaningful game reps for you that opening week. They would all benefit from a tune-up game.

But the flip side is, if you win, it can really set the tone for the season. Look at the boost Florida State got from its opening-week neutral-site wins against LSU the past two seasons. Or that aforementioned Georgia-Clemson game in Week 1, where the Dawgs gave the first taste of their suffocating national-championship defense. Or all those Nick Saban Alabama teams that started the season beating the snot out of someone at the old Georgia Dome or JerryWorld.

I’d also note — there’s a big difference between a true road game and a neutral-site game. I was at that FSU-LSU game in Orlando last year; there was nothing neutral about it. Remember how out of sync Florida looked in its Thursday night opener at Utah last year? Or the 2015 Christian McCaffrey Stanford team that laid an egg at Northwestern before going on to win 12 games and a Rose Bowl?

There’s a reason you see most big power-conference home-and-homes take place in Week 2 (like the Texas-Alabama games the past two seasons.)

With the 12-team Playoff, teams will see that the risk-reward of a tough Week 1 game is going to be much less risky.

Suppose Georgia does lay an egg in the Clemson opener. While it won’t help the Dawgs’ Playoff hopes, it also won’t be nearly as problematic. Even if they lose again after that, they could still reach the SEC championship game, where, win or lose, a 10-win Georgia team that played a murderous schedule is more than likely making the field. Kirby Smart gets this. Starting in 2026, the Dawgs are going to play three P4 nonconference foes — including opening the ’27 season against Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium.

I’d much rather my team, Cincinnati, have stayed in the AAC and dominated. As a fan, it’s a lot more fun. What are the best success stories of moving up/ sideways where the teams have prolonged, continued success? I’m thinking Utah and TCU? Am I missing anyone? Give me some hope.

Joel H.

I’d be curious how many (any?) Cincinnati fans feel that way. But yes, Utah and TCU are arguably your only modern North Stars. While that may sound discouraging, keep in mind, they are the only schools in the BCS/CFP era to move up from a Group of 5 conference to a power conference. Everyone else was moving from one power conference to another. That should give you hope if you’re a fan of not just Cincinnati but UCF, Houston, SMU and, while not technically from a G5 league, BYU.

But one key factor often gets overlooked with Utah and TCU. Not only were they dominant programs that won BCS bowls before getting the call up, they managed to keep their rock-star coaches, Kyle Whittingham and Gary Patterson, respectively, far into their next chapters. That’s not the case for Cincinnati, which lost Luke Fickell right before joining the Big 12, or UCF, where Scott Frost and Josh Heupel are long gone.

A great coach like Whittingham or Patterson can win in any league. Most of the schools that have flopped in their new conference haven’t had that. In fact, Nebraska’s Bo Pelini is a virtual one-man litmus test for realignment. In three seasons as a Big 12 coach, he went 9-4, 10-4 and 10-4. Then, in his three full seasons in the Big Ten, the Huskers went … 9-4, 10-4 and 9-4.

If I’m a Cincinnati fan, I’m less concerned about the step up in competition in the Big 12 than the fact Scott Satterfield went just 25-24 in his previous power-conference job at Louisville.

In recent years, it seems that every recruiting, transfer portal or realignment article includes (reader) comments along the lines of “college football is dead to me.” And yet, “they” are all still here. Are they ever going to go, or is the opportunity to complain about something just too great?

Orange dot Steve

Steve, if we removed all the complainers from the comments section, the only comments left would be Catherine B.’s and a couple of others. Let “them” have their space to vent. Take comfort knowing the “dead to me” folks are probably being hyperbolic. If not, their Saturdays this fall are going to be sad and empty and I genuinely feel sorry for them.

Pretty sure it’s the former.

(Photo: Junfu Han / USA Today)